Fast Thinking, Bad Decisions: Cognitive Biases in Intelligence-Led Policing

Abstract

Intelligence-led policing (ILP) is a strategic approach that uses data to improve decision-making and resource allocation within law enforcement. However, cognitive biases that influence analysis, judgement, and planning can compromise its effectiveness. Although ILP is based on systematic methodologies, there is a lack of research on the psychological factors that hinder its success. This study addresses this gap by using dual-process theory to explore how fast, instinctive thinking (System 1) and careful, logical thinking (System 2) work together in important policing situations. A literature review identifies common biases, such as confirmation bias, anchoring, overconfidence, and the availability heuristic, and illustrates their impact on intelligence analysis, operational decisions, resource allocation, and relations between the police and community. To mitigate these biases, this study suggests employing structured analytic techniques, decision-support tools, and specialised training to promote reflective thinking. This study particularly examines the challenges of implementing these strategies in resource-limited countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as in the Western Balkan region. By incorporating cognitive insights into ILP frameworks, law enforcement agencies can develop robust, equitable, and effective practices. This research contributes to evidence-based policing by highlighting the importance of addressing human judgement errors within intelligence systems.